“Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider the very sluggish economic recovery unsatisfactory — Friday’s job report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target-state polls show that independents — voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans — break for Romney.” (source)