20 11 / 2012

Romney by an electoral college landslide — more than 300 votes. The swing states will all swing the same way; Romney stuns Obama early in Pennsylvania, then cruises through Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

“Romney’s upper Midwest strategy pays off when bellwether Wisconsin pays back the Democrats for their recall treachery and delivers the state to the GOP.

“The Republicans keep the House and narrowly retake the Senate, even without Todd Akin, who’s this year’s Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell rolled into one.

“There are minor civil disturbances, quickly quelled. On Wednesday, the stock market goes up 300 points. Hiring booms. Flowers bloom. Pretty girls smile again. The sun comes out.

“And we do it again four years later.” (source)

Romney by an electoral college landslide — more than 300 votes. The swing states will all swing the same way; Romney stuns Obama early in Pennsylvania, then cruises through Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. “Romney’s upper Midwest strategy pays off when bellwether Wisconsin pays back the Democrats for their recall treachery and delivers the state to the GOP.

“The Republicans keep the House and narrowly retake the Senate, even without Todd Akin, who’s this year’s Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell rolled into one.

“There are minor civil disturbances, quickly quelled. On Wednesday, the stock market goes up 300 points. Hiring booms. Flowers bloom. Pretty girls smile again. The sun comes out.

“And we do it again four years later.” (source)

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19 11 / 2012

“Second, regardless of what the polls say, Obama obviously believes he is in big trouble. He finds himself having to fight for votes in places he needs to have in the bag if he is going to be reelected. And it is not a propitious time to fight for votes when the tide is running in the other guy’s favor; when a hurricane has just reminded people in key states that infrastructure was utterly ignored while the administration paid off its cronies with over $800 billion in our ‘stimulus’ money; and when the drip, drip, drip of Benghazi, despite the Obamedia’s best efforts to black-hole it, evolves from monumental debacle to an impeachable debacle.

“Mitt Romney wins … decisively.”

“Second, regardless of what the polls say, Obama obviously believes he is in big trouble. He finds himself having to fight for votes in places he needs to have in the bag if he is going to be reelected. And it is not a propitious time to fight for votes when the tide is running in the other guy’s favor; when a hurricane has just reminded people in key states that infrastructure was utterly ignored while the administration paid off its cronies with over $800 billion in our ‘stimulus’ money; and when the drip, drip, drip of Benghazi, despite the Obamedia’s best efforts to black-hole it, evolves from monumental debacle to an impeachable debacle.

“Mitt Romney wins … decisively.”

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19 11 / 2012

“In the last three months, I have been reading the polls, and I am aware that it has been made to look like a neck-and-neck race. But when I am in a position to peer under the hood of the polls that show President Obama ahead, I have consistently discovered that the poll operates under a preposterous assumption – that the voting public this coming Tuesday will be almost as Democratic or even more Democratic than the voting public was on the first Tuesday in November in 2008. The results that these pollsters get are baked in the cake. They are virtually certain consequences of the assumptions on which their polling is based. Everyone knows that, if the partisan predilections of the electorate in 2012 closely resembles those in 2008, the results will be pretty much the same.

“The assumptions made by these pollster are, in fact, absurd. They ignore the turnout record for the two parties in 2010 – a year more recent than 2008 – and they ignore the fact that the issues in this Presidential election are those that animated the elector in 2010 – Obamacare, the deficit, etc. – not those that animated it in 2008. Moreover, both Gallup and Rasmussen, the two pollsters that carefully track party identification over time, report that party identification for those likely to vote in 2012 is virtually identical to the party identification of those who actually voted two years ago and radically different from what party identification was in 2008.

“To be precise, in 2008, Gallup found that 39% of the electorate self-identified as Democrats and that 29% self-identified as Republicans. Today, the respective numbers are 35% and 36%. When one takes leaners into account the split in 2008 was 54-42, and today it is 46-49. Sympathy for the Democrats has dropped by 8% and sympathy for the Republicans has jumped by 7%. That is a 15% shift.

“To this we can add any number of indicators – to begin with, the fact that the Obama campaign has in effect abandoned Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia; the fact that Romney is clearly competitive in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota – states that Republicans have not won in many years; the fact that the Obama campaign is thrashing about with talk of Romnesia and revenge; the fact that Romney has been endorsed by Newsday, The New York Daily News, the Des Moines Register, the Las Vegas Review Journal, and a host of other papers that, like these, have almost never in recent years endorsed a Republican Presidential nominee.” (source)

“In the last three months, I have been reading the polls, and I am aware that it has been made to look like a neck-and-neck race. But when I am in a position to peer under the hood of the polls that show President Obama ahead, I have consistently discovered that the poll operates under a preposterous assumption – that the voting public this coming Tuesday will be almost as Democratic or even more Democratic than the voting public was on the first Tuesday in November in 2008. The results that these pollsters get are baked in the cake. They are virtually certain consequences of the assumptions on which their polling is based. Everyone knows that, if the partisan predilections of the electorate in 2012 closely resembles those in 2008, the results will be pretty much the same.

“The assumptions made by these pollster are, in fact, absurd. They ignore the turnout record for the two parties in 2010 – a year more recent than 2008 – and they ignore the fact that the issues in this Presidential election are those that animated the elector in 2010 – Obamacare, the deficit, etc. – not those that animated it in 2008. Moreover, both Gallup and Rasmussen, the two pollsters that carefully track party identification over time, report that party identification for those likely to vote in 2012 is virtually identical to the party identification of those who actually voted two years ago and radically different from what party identification was in 2008.

“To be precise, in 2008, Gallup found that 39% of the electorate self-identified as Democrats and that 29% self-identified as Republicans. Today, the respective numbers are 35% and 36%. When one takes leaners into account the split in 2008 was 54-42, and today it is 46-49. Sympathy for the Democrats has dropped by 8% and sympathy for the Republicans has jumped by 7%. That is a 15% shift.

“To this we can add any number of indicators – to begin with, the fact that the Obama campaign has in effect abandoned Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia; the fact that Romney is clearly competitive in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota – states that Republicans have not won in many years; the fact that the Obama campaign is thrashing about with talk of Romnesia and revenge; the fact that Romney has been endorsed by Newsday, The New York Daily News, the Des Moines Register, the Las Vegas Review Journal, and a host of other papers that, like these, have almost never in recent years endorsed a Republican Presidential nominee.” (source)

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16 11 / 2012

“Romney wins 53-47, thanks mainly to his Rope-A-Dope strategy and an immense enthusiam advantage…

“The Denver debate restored the enthusiasm and energy of the 2010 Tea Party electorate. And just as the Democrats surged into power by riding the wave in 2006 and 2008, it appears today that the Republicans are going to do something very similar tomorrow.

“For the record, I won’t be surprised if come Wednesday the Senate is 51-49 Democrat or 50-50. But I also won’t be surprised if it is 52-48 Republican. The House will remain essentially as it is, with perhaps a 2-3 seat GOP gain.” (source)

“Romney wins 53-47, thanks mainly to his Rope-A-Dope strategy and an immense enthusiam advantage…

“The Denver debate restored the enthusiasm and energy of the 2010 Tea Party electorate. And just as the Democrats surged into power by riding the wave in 2006 and 2008, it appears today that the Republicans are going to do something very similar tomorrow.

“For the record, I won’t be surprised if come Wednesday the Senate is 51-49 Democrat or 50-50. But I also won’t be surprised if it is 52-48 Republican. The House will remain essentially as it is, with perhaps a 2-3 seat GOP gain.” (source)

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16 11 / 2012

“My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.

“My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.

“My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.” (source)

“My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.

“My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.

“My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.” (source)

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15 11 / 2012

Now on Twitter

Pundit Shaming is now on Twitter.

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15 11 / 2012

“This election will not be close. That was my prediction last May when the shape of the presidential campaign became clear and it is my prediction now. While the media and pundits continue to muddy the water with claims and counter-claims feeding a conventional wisdom that this race will be a nail-biter, the reality is that historical facts and strategic blunders long ago doomed Barrack [sic] Obama to a single term…

“But the most entertaining fall-out will be the recriminations of pollsters and polling generally in the wake of Romney’s 330+ electoral vote win next Tuesday. It has been set in stone early on that the bulk of polling data for this cycle would incorporate some element of the 2008 turn-out model. Averaging past performance is a common tool in polling and, indeed, in all statistical modeling. But what happens if unique and unrepeatable factors create an outlier result? In 2008 President Obama brought out new voters and Democrats in historic numbers. He won independents and even cut into the Republican base because of three unique features of his candidacy: his race, the widespread disapproval of George W. Bush, and the desire to try something different in light of unprecedented economic turmoil.” (source)

“This election will not be close. That was my prediction last May when the shape of the presidential campaign became clear and it is my prediction now. While the media and pundits continue to muddy the water with claims and counter-claims feeding a conventional wisdom that this race will be a nail-biter, the reality is that historical facts and strategic blunders long ago doomed Barrack [sic] Obama to a single term…

“But the most entertaining fall-out will be the recriminations of pollsters and polling generally in the wake of Romney’s 330+ electoral vote win next Tuesday. It has been set in stone early on that the bulk of polling data for this cycle would incorporate some element of the 2008 turn-out model. Averaging past performance is a common tool in polling and, indeed, in all statistical modeling. But what happens if unique and unrepeatable factors create an outlier result? In 2008 President Obama brought out new voters and Democrats in historic numbers. He won independents and even cut into the Republican base because of three unique features of his candidacy: his race, the widespread disapproval of George W. Bush, and the desire to try something different in light of unprecedented economic turmoil.” (source)

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15 11 / 2012

“It isn’t just in Virginia where Mr. Obama’s fortunes are plummeting. When Missouri isn’t a swing state, but Minnesota is, Democrats are in big trouble. No challenger who’s cracked 50 percent in Gallup’s tracking poll has ever lost. Mr. Romney is polling better at this point in the campaign than did every victorious challenger from 1968 on.

“It’s hard to see how the president can mount a comeback. His strategy of demonizing Mitt Romney collapsed when Americans saw in the first debate the GOP candidate has neither horns nor hooves. In an NBC/WSJ poll Monday, 62 percent of respondents said they want “significant change” from Mr. Obama’s policies, but he’s offered little in the way of an agenda for a second term. Instead he makes excuses, and ever more petty attacks. Voters now think Mr. Romney is just as “likeable” as Mr. Obama. 

“So the question may not be whether Mr. Romney will win, but by how much.” (source)

“It isn’t just in Virginia where Mr. Obama’s fortunes are plummeting. When Missouri isn’t a swing state, but Minnesota is, Democrats are in big trouble. No challenger who’s cracked 50 percent in Gallup’s tracking poll has ever lost. Mr. Romney is polling better at this point in the campaign than did every victorious challenger from 1968 on.

“It’s hard to see how the president can mount a comeback. His strategy of demonizing Mitt Romney collapsed when Americans saw in the first debate the GOP candidate has neither horns nor hooves. In an NBC/WSJ poll Monday, 62 percent of respondents said they want “significant change” from Mr. Obama’s policies, but he’s offered little in the way of an agenda for a second term. Instead he makes excuses, and ever more petty attacks. Voters now think Mr. Romney is just as “likeable” as Mr. Obama.

“So the question may not be whether Mr. Romney will win, but by how much.” (source)

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15 11 / 2012

Mr. Cramer’s entry into the Washington Post’s Outlook’s 16th Crystal Ball contest: Obama 440, Romney 98. (source)

“No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin. Believe me.” (tweet)

Mr. Cramer’s entry into the Washington Post’s Outlook’s 16th Crystal Ball contest: Obama 440, Romney 98. (source)

“No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin. Believe me.” (tweet)

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14 11 / 2012

“The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago.  The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time.  Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.” (source)

“The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.” (source)

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