14 12 / 2012

“We ask why there is violence in our schools, but we’ve systematically removed God from our schools. Should we be so surprised that schools would become a place of carnage because we’ve made it a place where we don’t want to talk about eternity, life, what responsibility means, accountability?” (source)

“We ask why there is violence in our schools, but we’ve systematically removed God from our schools. Should we be so surprised that schools would become a place of carnage because we’ve made it a place where we don’t want to talk about eternity, life, what responsibility means, accountability?” (source)

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13 12 / 2012

“Romney wins, 296 – 242

“I think Romney will take Ohio. The differential between his massive early- and absentee-vote advantage in 2008 and this year’s ground truth is already enough to wipe out his previous margin of victory in the Buckeye State. Colorado, Iowa and Nevada are probably lost causes for the GOP, but Pennsylvania will flip into the red column — partially because Hurricane Sandy will depress some turnout in Obama-friendly Philadelphia, and because the new Black Panthers have been warned this time.” (source)

“Romney wins, 296 – 242

“I think Romney will take Ohio. The differential between his massive early- and absentee-vote advantage in 2008 and this year’s ground truth is already enough to wipe out his previous margin of victory in the Buckeye State. Colorado, Iowa and Nevada are probably lost causes for the GOP, but Pennsylvania will flip into the red column — partially because Hurricane Sandy will depress some turnout in Obama-friendly Philadelphia, and because the new Black Panthers have been warned this time.” (source)

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06 12 / 2012

“Later on tonight, Mitt Romney will string together a winning coalition with victories in states ranging from Virginia to Colorado, capturing the popular vote by nearly two points and a sizeable majority of electoral votes, making him the 45th President of the United States.

“We make this projection with full knowledge that a shift of one or two points in any of six key battleground states could hand Obama the election. But there comes a time when you have to make a judgment and that time is upon us.” (source)

“Later on tonight, Mitt Romney will string together a winning coalition with victories in states ranging from Virginia to Colorado, capturing the popular vote by nearly two points and a sizeable majority of electoral votes, making him the 45th President of the United States.

“We make this projection with full knowledge that a shift of one or two points in any of six key battleground states could hand Obama the election. But there comes a time when you have to make a judgment and that time is upon us.” (source)

27 11 / 2012

“‘Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,’ said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. ‘Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.’” (source)

“‘Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,’ said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. ‘Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.’” (source)

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27 11 / 2012

“Richard Mourdock handily wins the general election in Indiana.” 

(source)

“Richard Mourdock handily wins the general election in Indiana.”

(source)

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26 11 / 2012

“First, I believe Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5 (I’m assuming about 1 percent of the vote will go third party). This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College. Just last week, I would have predicted a slightly larger victory, but Hurricane Sandy cut a little bit of the edge Romney had by providing Obama with one last chance to leverage the advantage of the incumbency. Nonetheless, I believe Romney is headed for victory, because Republicans will pour out to vote in the numbers pollsters such as Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew have predicted…

“My final Electoral College prediction is 295 for Romney to 243 for Obama. We’ll find out in two days how close I am, but if Republicans come out Tuesday like the party-identification polls from Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted, I feel confident that Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.” (source)

NB: Mr. Jordan predicted Romney wins in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virgina, and Wisconsin.

“First, I believe Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5 (I’m assuming about 1 percent of the vote will go third party). This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College. Just last week, I would have predicted a slightly larger victory, but Hurricane Sandy cut a little bit of the edge Romney had by providing Obama with one last chance to leverage the advantage of the incumbency. Nonetheless, I believe Romney is headed for victory, because Republicans will pour out to vote in the numbers pollsters such as Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew have predicted…

“My final Electoral College prediction is 295 for Romney to 243 for Obama. We’ll find out in two days how close I am, but if Republicans come out Tuesday like the party-identification polls from Gallup and Rasmussen have predicted, I feel confident that Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.” (source)

NB: Mr. Jordan predicted Romney wins in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virgina, and Wisconsin.

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26 11 / 2012

“Then there’s the effect of the pick on Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. There has been a surge toward Romney since the Ryan pick, and the state is now generally considered a toss-up. On June 11, Obama was up by 4.4 points in the RCP average; as of today, that’s 1.4 points.

“In a very close race, Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes — votes that electoral-college fanatics playing with all kinds of scenarios to get Romney to the 270 he needs to win have consistently assigned to Obama — could be decisive.

“Even more telling is what Wisconsin polls suggest about Obama’s standing nationwide. If things go badly for him in the fall, Wisconsin will have been the great harbinger, beginning in 2010.” (source)

“Then there’s the effect of the pick on Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. There has been a surge toward Romney since the Ryan pick, and the state is now generally considered a toss-up. On June 11, Obama was up by 4.4 points in the RCP average; as of today, that’s 1.4 points.

“In a very close race, Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes — votes that electoral-college fanatics playing with all kinds of scenarios to get Romney to the 270 he needs to win have consistently assigned to Obama — could be decisive.

“Even more telling is what Wisconsin polls suggest about Obama’s standing nationwide. If things go badly for him in the fall, Wisconsin will have been the great harbinger, beginning in 2010.” (source)

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23 11 / 2012

“Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes.” (October 29, source 1, source 2, video)

“Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes.” (October 29, source 1, source 2, video)

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21 11 / 2012

Morris: I’ll also point out that very few of these guys, including Sabato and Cook, have ever made a living running campaigns and doing polling in them. They talk about it a lot, they read a lot of polls, they teach it, but they’ve never done it. And I have, and you’ll see that I’m right.
Kelly: How confident are you if you had to put, you know, a number on it?
Morris: Very. That we win? 9 out of 10? That it’s a landslide? 6 out of 10.

[…]
Kelly: You’re 90% confident in your projection, if you were laying odds.
Morris: That Romney wins, that Romney wins. Maybe 2 out of 3 that it’s a good-sized margin. (November 6, source)

Morris: I’ll also point out that very few of these guys, including Sabato and Cook, have ever made a living running campaigns and doing polling in them. They talk about it a lot, they read a lot of polls, they teach it, but they’ve never done it. And I have, and you’ll see that I’m right.

Kelly: How confident are you if you had to put, you know, a number on it?

Morris: Very. That we win? 9 out of 10? That it’s a landslide? 6 out of 10.

[…]

Kelly: You’re 90% confident in your projection, if you were laying odds.

Morris: That Romney wins, that Romney wins. Maybe 2 out of 3 that it’s a good-sized margin. (November 6, source)

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20 11 / 2012

“No, Obama is toast. And for the same reason, Republicans will also take the Senate, and by more than a couple of seats. Tuesday, I predict, will be a blood bath for Democrats as fiscal reality, not to mention a sense of enraged national honor, washes like a tsunami over the hapless Democratic Party, denuded now of everything except a viperish petulance and demand for what the President tellingly called ‘revenge.’ The adults in the political process are just about to make a big comeback, which will be good for the country but decidedly unpleasant for the party of redistribution and statist triumphalism.” (source)

“No, Obama is toast. And for the same reason, Republicans will also take the Senate, and by more than a couple of seats. Tuesday, I predict, will be a blood bath for Democrats as fiscal reality, not to mention a sense of enraged national honor, washes like a tsunami over the hapless Democratic Party, denuded now of everything except a viperish petulance and demand for what the President tellingly called ‘revenge.’ The adults in the political process are just about to make a big comeback, which will be good for the country but decidedly unpleasant for the party of redistribution and statist triumphalism.” (source)

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